pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #131779
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/5/2016 8:03:38 PM
shillihs, I will take a look at it. Kevin, everyone has their comfort level with the hold tolerance they see as being reasonable. For example, I am not comfortable being $5,000 down on the VIX because I went long on it multiple times in the middle of a bull.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #131780
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
10/5/2016 8:08:32 PM
Well that was the first person I ever put on ignore. He did come to my thread bashing at least
15 times. He was like a bad lingering stale fart. I think he has a bad drinking problem.
Although Kevin is kind of stuffy shirt, he may be the only one that might eventually create
a highly profitable system but as of now it's just a work in progress.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131781
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/5/2016 8:13:03 PM
Kevin, everyone has their comfort level with the hold tolerance they see as being reasonable. For example, I am not comfortable being $5,000 down on the VIX because I went long on it multiple times in the middle of a bull.
+++++++++++
I understand, but you are letting past errors control your current trading strategy. In those losses, did you stick religiously to a system? Did you even have a system, or were they trades made on a hunch?
If I had to guess, you probably tried to "get ahead of the market" and got schooled. I've been there, and it sucks. However, the issue was not with trading the ^VIX, it was with a lack of a clear and validated strategy for entering and exiting the trade, and the use of position sizing.
Every system, no matter how good, will have losses that sometimes are uncomfortably large. That does not invalidate the system, it simply is part of the game. You need to have an edge, and patience. Not trying to get all preachy here, just trying to point out that having a well-defined system should help make your trading better, not worse.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #131782
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
10/5/2016 8:20:56 PM
They say not to look at NAV to buy a sector but from experience mutual funds with very low NAVs
are the ones that seem poised to run. So when I see NAVs between 3 and 7, I scoop them up via ETF.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #131783
- Ignore gmg733 |
10/5/2016 8:58:10 PM
@kevin
Follow your system man. You owe it to yourself. Being mechanical is how you make money trading. I know it took me a while to break the cycle. Market doesn't care about what I think or what anyone thinks. Your systems are your edge and your alpha. Embrace brother. :)
There is always something we could do better. But trading is continuous improvement. I get better every day, every week, every year. And the common denominator for me was ridding the process of emotion.
You do great work. Keep it up!
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #131784
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/5/2016 9:08:25 PM
Kevin, I have a system I use. I don't trade on just a hunch as you suggest. I need to be more patient as a trader, I would say. you seem to be onto something with your system, even though we disagree on the issue of appropriate use of funds.(i.e. tying up a lot of capital for smaller margin trades).
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #131785
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/5/2016 10:05:41 PM
People that stab in the dark picking a stock here and there will not get far.
You need to trade an ETF, and in my opinion Vxx/Tvix/ Xiv seem to
respond to indicators and behave in the most consistent fashion.
Trading units will not give you the big returns you seek. You will see 35%
overall, assuming your emotions do not get in the way. Which is ok for most but
I could have just rode Xiv for 600% from 2011-2014 and have the system for that.
I'm looking to turn 20k into 1.2mill. in 2 years. And that's something that on paper I was able to accomplish with my personal system. A series of catching Tvix spikes and compounding can achieve this.
I don't think 1 system can do this. I think you do need some instinct also, to be able to look at past performance and setups, and be reasonably sure that this setup looks
like a setup I've seen before, and Tvix spiked 300% last time that happened, and 200%
the year before that.
Trying to track ^Vix seems impossible so I know that a system with a high win ratio that tracks XivVxx, will be the key. I have a good system but there are 20 moving parts and there are so many
variables, that I'm not sure I can put it into 1 code. It's so complex that it's not possible.
I have to trade it manually. Anyway keep working on it.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #131786
- Ignore shillllihs |
10/5/2016 11:53:19 PM
Tvix down 6% tomorrow. No position.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #131791
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/6/2016 9:55:55 AM
shillllihs
2,270 posts
msg #131581
- Ignore shillllihs
modified 9/29/2016 11:26:37 AM
After doing extensive research, we are in a hardcore bull phase. I will only be in Xiv and will
be selling 66% on dips, only to buy in again cheaper, until trend changes.
****************************************************************************************************************************
TVIX.....bonjour ma petite pâte feuilletée, de nouveau mal, hein !!!
After doing extensive research, Shilllihs's in a hardcore bullshit phase. I will continue to short him until his trend changes.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131792
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/6/2016 10:07:03 AM
I'm looking to turn 20k into 1.2mill. in 2 years.
I want you to re-read what you wrote here and think about the likelihood of that happening - you honestly expect a 6000% return in two years? I hope you have a flux capacitor and a spare Delorean at your house.
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