shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #139849
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/6/2017 12:35:47 AM
I see you've picked up one of my secrets incorporating standard error bands.
Just a warning, they only work in a bull market.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #139861
- Ignore sandjco |
12/6/2017 11:56:49 AM
@shills...yep, you are correct. I try to learn and adapt as I go along!
I'm also not certain if there are really any "indicator" that would work 100% of the time in any situation.
I'm trying to figure what I am ...a swinger or a hold till death do us part or a bump and chuck or all of them combined....
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shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #139863
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/6/2017 12:44:57 PM
Standard error work great in a bull market as a buy and sell off lower line. I mean the best. Just accumulate below. But you also have to have a good exit filter on the way up. Basically you can play Xiv long and short. You're almost there. In a bear market or swing market, you can just short small amounts of Tmv or maybe go long. Usd.
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shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #139875
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/6/2017 8:07:44 PM
Well the toughest one actually should be the easiest and that's buy n hold. Long term horizon you will make good money and amazing money if you have unlimited funds to add on dips. Scalping is stupid and you will never get wealthy doing it. Too ez to make mistakes. Swing trading gives you the best of of both worlds, and if you learn it well you won't have to ride out those monthly swings.
Swing trading in both directions or adding on dips in my opinion is the most profitable.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #139951
- Ignore sandjco |
12/9/2017 10:43:05 AM
Yep...I can see that; it is the execution that makes it a journey!
SOXL is testing my patience. Added to XIV using EOD $123.75; made a new high.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140145
- Ignore sandjco |
12/16/2017 12:07:39 AM
Added more to SOXL at $137.54 and CWEB at $47.60 using EOD prices.
Wanted to add more to XIV...but looks like it may be time to sell half?
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shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #140157
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/16/2017 9:56:03 PM
I think shorting SOXS is better for the decay but I think long Soxl is a good trade.
Shorting SOXS, you can set a stop loss somewhere above that and exit and re-enter,
If it goes below again. Just what I'm doing.
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140218
- Ignore sandjco |
12/19/2017 9:09:18 AM
Yes...ultimately, I would like to be able to "short" as well. Right now, I'm more focused in being able to take the "signals" generated by SF and decide to take it or not (correctly) and then be able to figure the exits (I'm also not very good with SF yet to be able to code an exit) while keeping it simple (which is one of my goals).
So far, I'm happy with what I've been able to do (with everyone's help here)...but hey, everyone is a genius in a bull market right? How will I fare in a bear market? I don't know and right now...it doesn't matter.
One day, I'd like to just be able to look at the price and the volume and be able to trade it accordingly.
Right now, Im thinking I should bail on XIV....but my other brain tells me, let it ride and see if it triggers my mental exit.
Thanks for dropping by shill!
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sandjco
648 posts
msg #140494
- Ignore sandjco |
12/30/2017 10:05:01 AM
All cash now. Sold XIV using EOD price of $134.44 for a gain (8%). Sold SOXL $137.90 for a slight loss (2%) and CWEB at $51.08 for a slight gain (7%).
Overall, looking back, I think I did well (despite not really following my rules to the T). Portfolio grew, albeit, with more trading costs and didn't beat B&H XIV. XIV was at $82.40 when I started here; it is now $134.44 or 59%. As expected, portfolio growth (or being able to minimize possible losses) was dictated (outside of trading) by position sizing/trading in tranches.
Going forward, I would want to (1) minimize my "second guessing" in entries and exits, (2) mentally, train myself to "move on" after selling a position instead of kicking myself for not holding on holder - a win is a win, (3) continue to find myself - swing, scalp, BnH add on dips, or ??? (or does it really matter), and (4) learn and understand more about the functionalities provided by SF.
Comments/Feedback, as always, are welcome.
Happy New Year everyone and thank you very much for sharing and teaching me. I look forward to learning more with the SF community in 2018.
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shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #140496
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/30/2017 11:48:45 AM
it's taken several years, but now that I am in the upper echelon of traders if not the worlds greatest trader, Ithe only thing I can say is, that no matter how much advice someone gives, they will refuse to heed it. Do you know how many times of given my world class opinion only to have it rebuffed? It would have saved 10's of thousands in losses but bottom line, most everyone wants to be the it guy.
Having said that, what I've learned is swing trading is king, using ETFs for safety.
I've compiled a list of 10 go to filters, four of which constitute my entries and exits. I use the others as confirmation. I've gone almost exclusively to shorting ETFs. My success ratio is well over 90% I'm not worried about drawdowns since I'm well diversified. My biggest problem has been entering trades too early and exiting too early. I am working on this. Entering early chips away at your gains.
The other thing I will never do again is follow anyone's trades unless looking for confirmation. Following others is a proven recipe for failure. Also, don't blend too many systems.
Don't let boredom get in the way of trading like I just did by buying frivolous options. Dumb idea.
I have never been so comfortable in my life as I am now in my trading.
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