| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #136539 - Ignore sandjco |
6/27/2017 8:24:12 PM LOL...yep, I got my eyes wide open! The first time was when I pulled my MF stmt from so called Advisors...I did better on my own! Tomorrow...will watch....5% mental stop (this is the part that I need to learn a lot about). |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #136540 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
6/27/2017 10:04:27 PM My investment approach is to identify high win% filters, and do not use stops. You occasionally get beat up but usually the trades in aggregate are profitable. I also depend greatly on robust backtesting data and look at the Sharpe ratios for every strategy I trade. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #136541 - Ignore four |
6/27/2017 10:41:56 PM A fixed 5% stop... -- What if you pick a stock that is more volatile (moves in bigger % range)? What if you pick a stock that is less volatile (moves in smaller % range)? If a stop is used... should the stop be wider on a more volatile stock? |
| four 5,087 posts msg #136542 - Ignore four |
6/27/2017 10:43:57 PM My plan was to "build" the position -- We have had a bull market over the last years. Adding to a down hill slide during a bear is possibly expensive. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #136543 - Ignore four |
6/27/2017 10:53:44 PM My plan was to "build" the position -- What happens to your model when we flip it. Same rules... but buy on a percent move up, not down. Do you wish to buy more of a stock that is going up OR more of a stock that is going down? Another view point: There is a famous picture of Paul Tudor Jones relaxing in his office with his feet kicked up. A single sheet of loose-leaf paper is tacked on the wall behind him with the simple phrase written out in black marker: “Losers Average Losers”. Famed trader Jesse Livermore warned 100 years ago against averaging losses. Losers Average Losers: Paul Tudor Jones - Trend Following https://www.trendfollowing.com/losers_average_losers/ |
| four 5,087 posts msg #136544 - Ignore four |
6/27/2017 10:58:14 PM bid / ask --- Is there any merit in picking a trading vehicle that is narrow or wide in its bid/ask? http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/bid-ask-spread.aspx |
| four 5,087 posts msg #136545 - Ignore four modified |
6/27/2017 11:08:56 PM I want the money streams to compound at least 2% a week. -- Have you calculated the annual return on this want? What would happen to a start of $50,000 by the end of the 5th year? the 10th year? --------------------------- Positive gain is $wins greater than $losses (Do we have positive net return?). And what is the ratio of #wins to #losses--60/40, 70/30...? A percent return must be greater on a win to make up for a loss. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain on the remainder. Remember taxes and commissions are drags. Loss (%)....... Req'd Gain 5%................. 5.2% 10%................. 11% 15%................. 18% 20%................. 25% 25%................. 33% 30%................. 43% 35%................. 54% 40%................. 67% 45%................. 82% 50%................ 100% |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #136553 - Ignore pthomas215 |
6/28/2017 12:26:03 PM sandjco, i am in Four's camp. Buy more on the way up, not down. I have a hard time doing it, but it is the better path. also forgot to say paper trade. I still paper trade to this day as part of testing new methods and new strategies. |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #136562 - Ignore sandjco |
6/29/2017 5:00:48 AM It went from red to green on D2. Was thinking of adding to the position but also wanted to wait for the price to cross the EMA or the EMAs to cross (which looks like they did). Analysis paralysis happened; no action was taken! if it moves up today; I'll add to the position. Thanks for the feedback; I do appreciate it. Definitely a lot to digest, learn, understand and apply. RE: backtesting the only "backtesting" I did was using the "historical" analysis function on SF and eyeballing when the signals would have been triggered over the past year and compared it to any failures. This one showed well with the previous 2 bounces. RE: stops For sure, this is something for me to learn/apply. Bigger range...tighter stops? RE: catching a falling knife definitely on the back of my mind. given that i'm buying indexes the pain may not be as severe? RE: what return do I want? net of commissions; my goal is to make at least 2% a week. However, I do know that is a stretch given that I've split the $50K into 5 streams of $10K each and I may not use all streams each week in full consistently. RE: paper trade I've paper traded for over a year and doing it "live" is so much different (at least initially) as I seem to find myself over analyzing trades that I would have taken on paper but did not using real money. RUSL was a perfect example recently for me...I wanted to take the trade and thought too much...  BTW...can a filter be created wherein it would spit signals to buy stocks when SPY RSI (14) is over 50? or is this possible using the correlation function? Cheers....have a great trading day! |
| sandjco 648 posts msg #136578 - Ignore sandjco |
6/30/2017 12:55:33 AM Interesting day...markets sold off hard and then tried to come back. Was tempted to add today...but didn't (head keeps on telling me to wait for it to go from red to green!)  |
| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · A Newbie's Journey | << 1 2 3 4 5 ... 48 >>Post Follow-up |