jackmack
334 posts
msg #102650
- Ignore jackmack |
9/21/2011 5:16:47 PM
Kevin_in_GA
Kevin - so if one were to use the filter on pg25 of this thread with the 8 ETF's how does one get the signal to enter
if just starting to use the filter? Meaning if TLT never changes over lets say the next 8 weeks and one were using the
filter but waiting for a signal to buy in they would miss on the action in TLT - so when would one start using the filter
and when would they enter?
Thank you
jackmack
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102661
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/22/2011 1:35:52 PM
Jackmack:
Same message as I gave you on 8/31 - you can jump in at any time and ride whatever is left of that wave, but you accept the fact that it might be riskier than waiting for the next signal.
I still think that you will be safest in bonds - low downside risk and what you might forfeit would be upside potential if the market makes a big move.
BTW, since giving you this same advice on 8/31, the SPY is down almost 7.5% while BND is up 1.2%. Back then the gap in 14 week performance was 10.6% - now it is over 14%.
It is highly unlikely that the market will be able to make up that much ground over the next few weeks, so if you are waiting for the signal I would not expect a change in leadership for at least another month.
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saico
59 posts
msg #102672
- Ignore saico |
9/23/2011 6:46:44 AM
Hi Kevin, the filter posted on page 28 with a weekly rotation is the final edition for the moment, right?
Thanks
saico
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wkloss
231 posts
msg #102708
- Ignore wkloss |
9/25/2011 11:00:27 AM
Kevin,
Have recent results caused you to give more thought to testing with a stop loss or is this just the cost of enduring the bad to get to the really good results this system usually produces?
Bill
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102709
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/25/2011 4:15:14 PM
Saico:
Yes, the last filter I posted is the one I suggest using. The 8 ETF modification might work well also, but the 14 week lookback period was developed with only SPY, IWM, EFA and BND.
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jackmack
334 posts
msg #102723
- Ignore jackmack |
9/26/2011 12:14:40 PM
Thank you Kevin - I have still been in cash as I was wanting to make sure I was using the system correct so all is well.
Thank you again - I do remember your post from August - I just was not sure if one was to "wait" for a new signal before getting in - I now have my answer.
Thanks again - cheers
jackmack
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #102824
- Ignore mahkoh
modified |
10/4/2011 5:48:04 PM
I recently read Tim Ord's book on price and volume analysis in which he states that you should try and look for stocks in the strongest sectors, "the wind in your back". I think this filter might work very well in determining the strongest performers.
Once you have filtered for the strongest sector(s) use the next filter
where you copy and paste the top sector(s) in the symlist in order to get the strongest stocks within the strongest sector.
I changed the 13 week roc to 4 weeks as I think this may be better suited for shorter term trades. Any thoughts on this are greatly appreciated.
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scott111552
173 posts
msg #102825
- Ignore scott111552 |
10/4/2011 8:03:34 PM
This is very useful information....thank you for sharing.....you can also go to Insidestocks.com and view the strongest sectors
and stocks there as well.....
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duke56468
683 posts
msg #102826
- Ignore duke56468 |
10/5/2011 9:11:10 AM
Finviz will also do this for you under the GROUPS button which are then further broken down to companies with both financial and technical statistics. Very thorough and free.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102848
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/6/2011 4:36:33 PM
Not to derail this thread any further (as this is really designed to focus on asset classes rather than sectors within a given class), but this might be helpful for some:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/october-signals-from-the-sector-rotation-model/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+afraidtotrade%2FNRSd+%28Afraid+to+Trade.com+Blog%29
Truth is, stay out of equities until several things happen:
1) the 14 week ROC for SPY or IWM is positive and leading the pack (i.e., outperforming less risky assets like bonds)
2) there is a shift in the sector relative strength such that offensive sector ETFs are outperforming the SPY
3) small and mid cap stocks begin outperforming large cap stocks.
All of these are good indicators of a "risk on" market, and can be used as indicators of overall market health.
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